Like a thrilling corporate drama, the battle for Warner Bros Discovery acquired a sensational new subplot last week when, not willing to let go, Paramount Skydance made a comeback with a $108.4 billion all-cash hostile bid for the studio powerhouse, just days after WBD had sealed a deal with Netflix.
Paramount went straight to investors on Monday with a $30-a-share tender for all of WBD.
Netflix, whose offer arrived first, had valued the company’s studio and streaming assets at $27.75 a share through a mix of cash and stock.
Netflix has proposed a cash-and-stock acquisition of WBD’s studios and streaming businesses, excluding its cable assets, while Paramount wants the entire company—from Warner Bros studios and streaming to CNN and Discovery.
The offers arrive at a moment when media consolidation is reshaping the competitive landscape, and the outcome is expected to influence everything from streaming prices and theatrical releases to employment across Hollywood.
While both companies argue their bids are superior, the implications vary significantly depending on the chosen buyer.
Investors, regulators, Hollywood unions and consumer advocates are weighing not only deal value but also the long-term impact on the industry.
How the offers differ in structure and strategic intent
Netflix’s proposal, valued at $27.75 a share, focuses on acquiring only the crown jewels of Warner Bros: its iconic studios, HBO and HBO Max, and the associated streaming businesses.
The cable channels—including CNN, Cartoon Network and Discovery—would be spun into a separate company. Investors would receive $23.25 in cash and $4.50 in Netflix stock.
Paramount’s bid, by contrast, is simpler but more sweeping.
It offers WBD shareholders $30 in cash per share for the entire company.
David Ellison, Paramount’s chief executive, has argued that acquiring all of WBD would dramatically scale Paramount’s streaming ambitions and give regulators a cleaner, more straightforward transaction to assess.
Analysts note that the “total value” of both offers is close once adjustments are made for what Netflix is choosing to leave out.
Yet Paramount’s all-cash structure is attractive to investors seeking certainty amid market volatility.
Many now expect Paramount to increase its offer, after internal advisers signalled that the $30 bid was not “best and final.”
Impact on jobs: consolidation likely to bring steep cuts
Both potential owners claim their deal would be more job-preserving than the alternative, but consolidation on this scale almost always results in redundancies.
The existing merger that created WBD already led to several thousand layoffs, and another round—whether under Netflix or Paramount—appears inevitable.
Paramount executives have said they expect at least $6 billion in savings over three years.
Analysts estimate this would translate into as many as 6,000 job cuts across overlapping film, TV and corporate functions.
Paramount also owns its own studio lot, cable channels and news operations, creating additional areas of duplication.
Netflix’s integration, analysts say, would be less severe in the near term.
Without a legacy studio complex of its own, Netflix would rely heavily on WBD’s existing infrastructure and production teams, reducing immediate pressure for cuts.
However, Netflix has stated that it seeks $2–3 billion in savings, primarily through procurement and distribution efficiencies.
Over time, consolidation of production units and back-office systems could shrink headcount.
Hollywood unions have already called for regulators to block Netflix’s offer on the grounds that it could centralise too much power in a company viewed as hostile to theatrical releases.
However, they acknowledge that a Paramount takeover would also lead to job losses—just potentially in different places.
What the Netflix offer implies for viewers
A Netflix takeover would unite the world’s largest streaming service with HBO’s prestige offerings and Warner Bros’ deep film library.
For viewers, this raises three major questions: how streaming packages may change, whether theatrical windows will shrink, and how pricing will evolve.
Netflix has told its subscribers that nothing will change immediately and that HBO Max will continue as a separate service for the foreseeable future.
But industry analysts believe bundling is inevitable. Integrating HBO titles into Netflix’s global distribution engine would give Netflix an unprecedented programming footprint.
Co-CEO Greg Peters has suggested the companies could eventually introduce mixed subscription plans, bringing HBO originals under Netflix’s pricing tiers.
The larger concern for cinemas is whether Netflix would eventually shorten theatrical windows for major Warner Bros releases.
The company has historically favoured quick streaming debuts and limited theatrical runs.
While it has committed to maintaining Warner’s established theatrical contracts through 2029, long-term incentives may shift.
For consumers, consolidation typically leads to higher prices.
Experts expect subscription fees for any Netflix-HBO Max bundle to increase within 12–18 months of a deal closing.
What the Paramount offer implies for viewers
Paramount has argued that combining its studio with Warner Bros would expand theatrical outputs, not shrink them.
Paramount sits at an “existential crossroads” right now because buying Warner Discovery would be crucial to helping the company scale its direct-to-consumer streaming business, MoffettNathanson analyst Robert Fishman wrote Monday in a research note.
Ellison has pledged to release at least 30 films a year—significantly more than either studio currently produces independently.
Paramount owns CBS News and dozens of cable channels.
A combined entity could reshape the US news and entertainment landscape, creating potential synergies but also raising fears of reduced diversity in content.
Bundling CBS, Paramount+ and HBO Max into a single subscription could create one of the industry’s largest entertainment packages, almost certainly at a higher price point.
The merger would also give Paramount a broad content library similar in scale to Disney’s.
Analysts believe the combined company would eventually consolidate its streaming offerings under a single umbrella, likely retiring the Paramount+ brand and re-centring the business around a unified Warner-Paramount service.
How regulators may view both offers
Both deals face intense regulatory scrutiny, though analysts differ on which one stands a better chance.
Netflix has 302 million paying subscribers, compared with 128 million at WBD and 79 million at Paramount.
A tie-up between Netflix and WBD would significantly strengthen its lead as the world’s largest streaming platform, typically a major concern for regulators.
But if authorities treat YouTube and TikTok as part of the competitive landscape, Netflix’s market share appears far less dominant.
Paramount believes it has an advantage because it is much smaller.
But the political dimension complicates the picture.
Trump has long been critical of CNN, frequently branding it “Fake News,” and some analysts suggest he may prefer to see the network folded into Paramount’s portfolio.
Paramount already owns CBS News, which recently appointed Bari Weiss — a vocal critic of progressive cultural trends — as editor-in-chief.
From a regulatory standpoint, a Paramount bid would draw scrutiny over the merger of two major Hollywood studios.
But beyond the economics, political considerations loom large.
Trump said on Sunday that he “would be involved” in determining who ultimately acquires WBD, indicating he could influence the process through the Justice Department’s antitrust authority.
On the surface, Paramount may appear to have an edge: David Ellison is the son of Oracle founder Larry Ellison, a close Trump ally, and Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law, is among the financial backers of the Paramount offer.
Polymarket odds suggest a near-tie, with a 42% chance each that Netflix or Paramount will succeed before June 2027.
Ball in WBD’s investors’ court as they expect Paramount to sweeten the bid
WBD shares bounced back 9% on Monday after Paramount unveiled its hostile bid, reversing the 9.8% drop recorded on Friday when Netflix announced its agreement with the studio.
Paramount chief executive David Ellison spent Tuesday meeting Warner investors in New York, urging them to press the company’s management and board to favour his bid over Netflix’s, according to people familiar with the discussions.
Several attendees left the meetings believing a higher bid from Paramount was likely, The Wall Street Journal reported.
Warner’s stock climbed roughly 4% across Tuesday and Wednesday as the meetings unfolded, trading close to $30 a share — just shy of both offer values.
That narrow gap suggests investors believe at least one bidder will return with an improved proposal, hedge-fund managers said.
If investors doubted a deal would close, the stock would trade at a steeper discount, given the lengthy timeline and regulatory risk involved.
Instead, the pricing indicates expectations for a swift outcome.
Shareholders broadly anticipate that Paramount will raise its offer.
A regulatory filing on Monday offered the clearest hint yet that Paramount is prepared to pay more.
In it, Blair Effron of Centerview, advising Paramount, texted Evercore’s Roger Altman — who is advising WBD — to underline that Paramount’s previous proposal “did not include ‘best and final’.”
Effron reached out after WBD chief David Zaslav did not respond to Ellison’s December 4 message expressing willingness to go further to secure a deal.
If Paramount ultimately raises its offer, WBD could argue that agreeing to Netflix’s deal helped draw a richer bid from a rival, potentially supporting its decision-making, analysts said.
Warner Bros. Discovery shares have surged almost 40% — from just over $21 before the offers emerged to just under $29.
Paramount’s $30-a-share bid for the entire company, including the cable networks, has pushed the stock above the value implied by Netflix’s proposal.
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