Micron stock (NASDAQ: MU) fell more than 3.5% on Tuesday after a blistering rally that saw the stock more than double from its November low.
The pullback reflects classic profit-taking after a steep run, combined with unusual options activity and investor concerns about very large capital-spending commitments.
The stock now trades below the $425 level, down from intraday highs of $455 logged just days earlier, leaving traders to digest both the near-term technical setup and the longer-term implications of Micron’s aggressive expansion plans.
The behavioral backdrop is straightforward: after climbing 114% in just over two months from a November 20th low of $201.37, Micron stock has triggered the mechanical selling patterns.
The share price now trades 147% above its 200-day moving average.
As the momentum cools, the money managers rebalance portfolios, retail traders lock profits, and algorithmic traders trim, contributing to the downward pressure.
Micron stock: Options hedging and dealer-driven selling
The pullback has been amplified by unusual put option activity.
Barchart’s options data reveals over 10,000 put contracts traded at the $390 strike (expiring May 15, 2026), representing 75 times the prior open interest and suggesting traders are bracing for a pullback.
When a large spike in put buying occurs after a stock’s massive run, market makers hedge their short-put exposure by selling shares, creating a mechanical feedback loop that pressures prices further.
The implied volatility of these puts stands at 70%, an extreme level that reflects investor anxiety.
Buyers are paying steep premiums ($44.33 per contract) for the downside protection, signaling concern that Micron’s run has disconnected from near-term fundamentals.
Meanwhile, short-sellers of these puts are collecting income premiums of over 11% over 107 days, a yield that reflects how skittish options traders have become.
Capex concerns and valuation repricing
The $24 billion Singapore fab announcement sounds great as a long-term strategy, but unsettles near-term math.
New production doesn’t commence until late 2028, yet Micron raised fiscal 2026 capex to $20 billion, plus another $7 billion for high-bandwidth memory facilities.
The investors are now pausing to calculate the cash flow impact and whether near-term margin expansion can sustain valuations once capex surges.
Analysts’ average price target sits around $356–$433, below current levels for some surveys.
After a 373% one-year gain and with Micron trading at 41.46x forward earnings (a premium to historical ranges), the stock is vulnerable to guidance misses or margin pressure.
Near-term support sits at $407–$410 (the intraday low on February 3). If the stock closes below $400, technical sellers will likely emerge.
Conversely, a close above $440 could reignite momentum into the earnings date. The key catalyst remains execution: whether Micron’s capex can build capacity that keeps competitors at bay through 2027.
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