US stocks opened the week on a firm footing, brushing aside geopolitical shock after Washington’s strike on Venezuela and the capture of President Nicolás Maduro.
The S&P 500 rose about 0.6% on the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added roughly 256 points, also up 0.6%.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite outperformed, climbing close to 0.8% as risk appetite held steady despite the headline drama.
The energy stocks are surging on dealmaking hopes, and the broader market is threading a needle between geopolitical risk and genuine business optimism.
What matters most for traders today: the ISM manufacturing data and Jensen Huang’s keynote at CES this afternoon, both could set the tone for January.
US market open: What happened in pre-market trading
The pre-market session revealed a market clearly digesting the weekend news from Caracas.
The S&P 500 futures rose 0.3% while Nasdaq-100 futures climbed 0.7%, keeping the tech-heavy index on pace to snap a five-day losing streak.
The Dow Jones futures inched up just 0.004%, signaling more cautious positioning in traditional blue chips.
Energy stocks stole the morning’s spotlight. Exxon Mobil jumped 4.3%, while Chevron surged 7.8%, the most aggressive gains among the major oil names.
US President Trump said over the weekend that “very large” US oil companies would be invited into Venezuela to “spend billions” rebuilding the country’s oil infrastructure.
But here’s the catch that’s keeping oil prices from exploding higher: analysts are skeptical about the timeline.
Even with Maduro now facing drug trafficking charges in a Brooklyn courtroom, reviving Venezuelan oil production will require years of work, not months.
The infrastructure is severely degraded. Political transition remains murky. And the global oil market is already drowning in oversupply, with prices hovering near $60 per barrel for Brent crude.
Semiconductors and AI-linked stocks bounced back nicely.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) gained 2.63% in pre-market trading after Goldman Sachs raised its price target.
Broadcom suppliers and logic chipmakers related to data center buildout also advanced on optimism that the AI spending cycle isn’t finished.
What is expected in today’s trading
The real action lands in two events: the ISM Manufacturing report due at 10:00 AM Eastern, and Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s keynote speech at 4:00 PM Eastern at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to edge up to 48.3 from 48.2 in November, still below 50, which signals continued contraction in the factory sector after nine consecutive months of shrinkage.
If the number comes in cooler than expected, it could stoke fears about a labor market slowdown ahead of Friday’s critical jobs report.
If it surprises to the upside, it gives bulls ammunition that manufacturing is finding a floor.
The bigger headline, though, is Huang’s keynote at CES.
Nvidia stock has been under pressure in recent weeks as investors fret about the return on all the hundreds of billions being sunk into AI data center buildout.
Huang is expected to unveil new thoughts on AI chips, robotics, physical AI, and autonomous vehicles.
AMD CEO Lisa Su will deliver her own keynote earlier in the week.
The market is watching closely to see if either company can restore confidence in the durability of AI capital spending in 2026.
Geopolitically, the capture of Maduro sends a signal that the Trump administration is willing to project power in the Western Hemisphere, a move some analysts say could reverberate through emerging markets.
That’s why defensive assets like gold are bid, and why bonds are catching bids.
But for today’s session, the market will likely treat Venezuela as “priced in” and focus on the nitty-gritty: What’s the PMI saying about factory health?
What’s Huang saying about AI demand? Those two answers will set the tone far more than any geopolitical headline.
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